USING THE SLEUTH MODEL TO SIMULATE FUTURE URBAN GROWTH IN THE GREATER EASTERN ATTICA AREA, GREECE

Abstract

Urban sprawl is, undoubtedly, a global phenomenon that has been in effect since the dawn of
civilization and has been an intriguing subject, primarily in the research field of geography.
In recent years, the need to forecast and simulate real-world urban processes has led to
advancements in computational methods on modeling these patterns. This paper reviews how
primitive forms of urban settlements have gradually shaped into today’s contemporary cities.
In addition, the causes, types and impacts of urban sprawl are examined given the importance
to predict negative effects when an urban project is built. Lastly, this study includes an
application of a Cellular Automaton (CA) Urban Growth Model (UGM) in order to simulate
future urban growth. For this endeavor, the greater area of Eastern Attica, Greece was chosen
as case study due to the fact that it yet has vast non-urban areas that could be converted to
urban in the foreseeable future. To produce the final simulation output, various sources of
digital imagery were used and then processed according to the model’s specific format. The
final prediction scenario presents urban growth for the year of 2045 on Eastern Attica.